Allan Lichtman, Who Is Known For Accurate Prediction Of US Presidential Election Winner Has Made Bold Prediction for the Next US Presidential Election.

A historian who has accurately predicted every US presidential election since 1984 has released his forecast for the next one.

A lot of things would have to go wrong, according to American University of Washington history professor Allan Lichtman, for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump in November.

In the 1980s, Allan Lichtman developed a method he named "13 Keys" and published a book outlining the concept.

The method, he claims, allows him 'to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not polls, tactics or campaign events.'

Even if polls suggest that Biden is trailing Trump in a number of swing states, Lichtman thinks the president still has a good chance of winning reelection since two of his 13 criteria—a strong primary opponent and incumbent status—are already working in Biden's favour.

'That's two keys off the top,' he said. 'That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.'

According to Lichtman, he is unimpressed by polls that show Trump either tied with or ahead of Biden nationally and in significant swing states. 

"They're mesmerized by the wrong things, which is the polls,' he said. 'First of all, polls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value.

It's always possible there could be a cataclysmic enough event outside the scope of the keys that could affect the election and here we do have, for the first time, not just a former president but a major party candidate sitting in a trial and who knows if he's convicted – and there's a good chance he will be – how that might scramble things."

According to Lichtman, he was able to forecast Biden's win in 2020 because of the COVID-19 epidemic, which was a historical occurrence.

Nonetheless, Trump is benefiting from a few factors. A crucial element is the presence of a noteworthy third-party contender, potentially Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the contest.

The economy plays a major role in two of the factors, and although some economic indicators have moved in Biden's favour, his popularity rating hasn't increased as a result.

Another factor working against Biden is social discontent; university campuses are currently the epicentre of anti-Israel demonstrations, with many young people calling the president "Genocide Joe."

While many believe both candidates are too old, age seems to be working more against Biden than Trump. The charm of both the incumbent and the challenger is also considered as crucial.